Photo : Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
17 February 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #439
War in Ukraine: Day 358
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the ground
On 16 February, Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to international organisations in Vienna, Yevhenii Tsymbaliuk, in his address to OSCE meeting highlighted the infrastructural damage and the limitations faced by military in deterring missiles targeted towards infrastructure. This has caused partial damage to Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant resulting in reduced water supply for Ukrainians. He also stated how Russia has been causing delay in vessel inspection increasing the food security risk for export to Asia and Africa. Tsymbaliuk also raised concerns over Russia’s usage of seaports in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea for military goods.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 16 February, Russia’s Governor reported on Russia’s air defence success in countering Ukraine’s drones launched on Sevastopol in Crimea. He claimed that the Russian forces had shot down such drones, and UAV’s close to 10.
On 16 February, Russia’s government commission sanctioned the sale of IKEA factories of Sweden to two local Russian buyers. This will be bought by “Russian kitchen worktop manufacturer Slotex and lumber producer Luzales.” Although the operations will continue, will be sold by domestic stores. According to IKEA brand owner: “This process is between the authorities and applying companies. We have agreed with the potential buyers not to share any details with respect to them and the integrity of the sales process.”
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 16 February, Norway’s parliament agreed to provide a aid package of NOK 75 billion for Ukraine in five year’s period. Under the package, NOK 15 billion would be allocated to civilian and military aid between 2023 and 2027.
On 16 February, the Parliament of Slovakia signed a resolution against Russia for shelling on civilians, energy infra, and to support Ukraine’s territorial integrity. In the resolution, Russia was termed as terrorist and was condemned by Slovakia for posing nuclear threat.
On 16 February, the German training association Commander reported on the progress of the Ukrainian forces in training on Patriot air defences in Germany. Close to 70 soldiers have been training for last two weeks, he added: “Ukrainians are very motivated and often already have some experience, so everything is happening quicker than expected.”
On 16 February, Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko expressed the position of Belarus in Ukraine war. Against all the doubts on involving Belarus indirectly in war, he stressed that Belarus will join with Russia only when it is under attack. On Belarus Lukashenko added: “Always committed to the peaceful resolution of any international problems'' and that it was "doing everything to stop the bloodshed.
On 15 February, ISW observed that Russia lacks in repairing military hardware against the damages. It states that two-third of Russia’s tanks had been damaged in the war. It predicts that Ukraine still had chances to carry out counter offensive depending on the support from the West.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 16 February, a research organisation Mediendienst Integration published its findings of study on integration of Ukrainian refugees into Germany. It found from a survey in October 2022 that off the 11,000 refugees surveyed, 72 per cent were receiving high level education, 17 per cent employed, and 37 per cent wanted to stay back in Germany.
References
“Ukraine at OSCE: Russia trying to cut water supply to Ukrainians by destroying Kakhovka HPP,” Ukrinform, 16 February 2023
“Ukrainian crews mastering Patriot systems extremely quickly – Germany,” Ukrinform, 16 February 2023
“Russia approves sale of IKEA factories – official,” RT, 16 February 2023
“Major Russian port city claims success against Ukrainian drone strikes,” RT, 16 February 2023
“Parliament Again Condemns Russian Aggression in Ukraine,” tasr.sk, 16 February 2023“ОЦІНКА РОСІЙСЬКОЇ НАСТУПАЛЬНОЇ КАМПАНІЇ, 15 ЛЮТОГО 2023,” ISW, 15 February 2023
“Ukraine updates: Russian strikes reported across Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 16 February 2023
IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh and Femy Francis
FINLAND
Finnish Minerals Group finds rare earth metals deposits found in Sokli
On 16 February, the Finnish Minerals Group announced that it has found a significant amount of rare earth metals deposits in Sokli. According to the Minerals Group, the deposit can supply “10 per cent of all rare earth metals required annually for permanent magnet production in Europe.” This was revealed in a scoping study launched by the Group in 2021 to determine the number of phosphate deposits in Sokli. The study also aimed to see if mining operations in Sokli can be “economically feasible and environmentally sustainable.” Finnish Minerals Group mining project manager Pasi Heino said: “There are a few hundred in the world that are similar geologically, but they’re much smaller. And Sokli has unusually large amounts of different metals.” The deposit also contains iron, hafnium, tantalum, manganese, zircon, copper, silver, uranium, vermiculite, and niobium. (“Significant deposit of rare earth metals discovered in Finnish Lapland,” Helsinki Times, 17 February 2023)
FRANCE
The largest energy importer after four decades
On 16 February, France's electricity network manager RTE stated that after Four decades of France being an energy exporter, it became an Importer in 2022. The shift is worrisome for the country and has major consequences for the country’s energy bill. There are several reasons affecting France to reach this level, where the Ukraine war caused France's energy prices to soar as the supplies fell from Russia. There was an unavailability of the nuclear fleet which provides for 50 to 70 per cent of electricity. As many were delayed for maintenance due to Covid and were eroded. With that, there was over half a year of restriction on hydrogen power production due to summer drought while wind and solar power made up for it. This led to them being dependent on EU neighbours, which is happening for the first time since 1980. This might result in France’s energy bill rising to EUR115 billion. (Paul Messad, “Electricity exporter for 42 years, France became a net importer in 2022,” Euractiv, 16 February 2023)
REGIONAL
Russia deployed tactical nuclear weapons armed ships says Norwegian intelligence
On 13 February, the Norwegian intelligence released its annual report where it said that ships from the Russian Northern Fleet had been deployed in the Baltic Sea. The report said that this is the first such deployment in 30 years adding that the ships were regularly deployed in the sea during the Soviet era. It added: “The key part of the nuclear potential is on the submarines and surface ships of the Northern Fleet.” The report also stated that this deployment highlights that Russia will continue to be a nuclear threat to NATO and extension Norway. (Sravasti Dasgupta, “Russia deploys ships armed with tactical nuclear weapons for first time in 30 years, says Norway,” Independent.co.uk, 16 February 2023)
Poland continues to import Russian oil says Frankfurter
On 16 February, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (F.A.Z), a German media outlet claimed that Poland continues to import Russian oil through the Druzhba oil pipeline. The report referred to the statements of European Commission Cabinet Head Björn Seibert who said that an EU member continues to import Russian oil from the northern part of the oil pipeline. The northern strand of the pipeline supplied both Germany and Poland with Russian oil, but according to the German Economics Ministry, it has not ordered any Russian oil from this pipeline since January 2023. Poland has not refuted this claim saying that the PKN Orlen oil company imports only 10 per cent of Russian oil through the pipeline. The Polish government added that due to the long-term supply contract between the two countries, Poland can only terminate the contract if sanctions are placed on the pipelines to evade penalties. (Thomas Gutschker “Poland continues to obtain oil from Russia,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 16 February 2023)
European Parliament will allow Pfizer back to the premise
On 16 February, European Parliament to allow access to Representatives of pharmaceutical company Pfizer in the parliamentary premise. This comes after Pfizer was banned from entering the parliament on 11 January because of its inability to provide an explanation for the vaccine purchase contract during the pandemic. The CEO of Pfizer refused to testify in a European court over the accusations. The committee decided to impose sanctions on the company by barring it from the premise. The committee also found European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a “Pfizergate” scandal where text messages were leaked with the CEO of Pfizer having negotiated 1.8 billion doses of vaccine. (Clara Bauer-Babef, “Pfizer retains access to EU Parliament despite vaccine purchase controversy,” Euractiv, 16 February 2023)
EU and UK Nitrogen dioxide emission cross the WHO standards
On 17 February, Euractiv reported EU and UK capital traffic-linked air pollution is over the WHO threshold. While the emission of nitrogen dioxide is decreasing it's still not under the guidelines mentioned by WHO. Nitrogen dioxide is a common emission when inhaled and can cause harmful effects on the respiratory system. It estimated that emission by the road transport sector is accountable for 37 per cent of emissions. This is a major issue as it is majorly located in Urban cities which are packed with dense populations. Over 430,000 European are annually affected by NO2 concentration and therefore the WHO enlists stricter standards for ambient air quality directive. (“Traffic-linked air pollution exceeds WHO limits across UK, EU capitals: study ” Euractiv, 17 February 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
Finland grants Afghan women and girls refugee status
On 16 February, Finland’s Immigration Service announced that it will be granting Afghan women and girls refugee status amid the worsening situation of women’s rights in Afghanistan. Finnish Asylum Unit Director Antti Lehtinen said that now gender alone will be enough to grant asylum. The Immigration Service has also amended its guidelines for processing applications submitted by Hazaras from Afghanistan to reflect the guidelines of the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA). While this announcement has widely received positive reactions, many have expressed concerns. Helsinki Times claimed that this could lead to the exploitation of women and girls and encourage illegal migration. (“Finland to grant refugee status to Afghan women and girls,” Helsinki Times, 16 February 2023)
UK announces a new Sahel Humanitarian Fund to support vulnerable communities in the region
On 16 February, UK Development and Africa Minister Andrew Mitchell launched the new Sahel Regional Fund (SRF) to support vulnerable communities in the region suffering from food insecurity, rising violence and displacement. On a three-day visit to Niger, Mitchell said that this fund will be launched in collaboration with local and international NGOs to provide vital humanitarian assistance to the vulnerable communities across the Sahel. The SRF will also supply key life-saving aid and lasting solutions to the displaced people in the region. The GBP 33 million funds will be supplied to the region till 2026. (“UK launches new Sahel Humanitarian Fund,” gov.uk, 16 February 2023)
South Africa, Russia and China to launch Joint Naval exercise raises concern among diplomats in Africa
On 17 February, South Africa, Russia and China launched a Joint Naval exercise. The move has seen domestic criticism that the drills and naval joint exercise would endanger the relationships with Western partners. Africa has become a global interest amid the Ukraine war and increasing Chinese aggression. The general African policy is aimed at staying neutral to benefit from the ‘Diplomatic tug-of-war while its risky to hold a 10-day Mosi II exercise during one year anniversary of a Russian invasion. There are African diplomats who ignore the concerns saying that a similar exercise was held in November with France. The Defence Minister said: “South Africa, like any independent and sovereign state, has a right to conduct its foreign relations in line with its … national interests.” (“South Africa’s naval exercise with Russia, China raises Western alarm,” Euractiv, 17 February 2023)
UN calls for member states to provide USD one billion for Turkey's earthquake relief
On 16 February, United Nations for the relief efforts in Turkey launched an appeal for USD One billion from the member states. The death toll has now increased to 41,000 and the rescue mission is still going on. The proposal plans to provide humanitarian aid for the coming 3 months to 5.2 million people. The UN spokesperson said, “I urge the international community to step up and fully fund this critical effort in response to one of the biggest natural disasters of our times.” Earlier this week UN also urged for USD 400 million to aid Syrian survivors of the earthquake. The UN spokesperson when asked about the biased support for Turkey over Syria, responded by saying humanitarian communities had been working in Syria before the earthquake therefore the call for Turkey to put forward first. (“Turkey earthquake: UN launches $1 billion aid appeal,” Deutsche Welle, 17 February 2023)